Dated claims the workshop cannot unmake.
Whoever frames a question must stake dated, scoreable forecasts on it. This register turns that rule on the workshop that writes the framework. Six probabilistic forecasts sit on the vital-signs instruments, each with a resolution date, a void condition, and a Brier score. What the register can falsify is the calibration of the eyes that chose the panel, not the framework's success.
Staked July 18, 2026. The register resolves publicly. Each score feeds the calibration leg of the degeneration condition (falsifier F–09) and the reality anchor that binds every framing seat to dated forecasts (EQ–06e).
How it scores
Forecasts are staked only on instruments with a verified cadence and a clear headline number, resolving within eighteen months. Scoring is the Brier rule, the squared difference between the stated probability and the outcome, averaged across resolved forecasts, against the 0.250 baseline of uninformative guessing. A void condition protects each stake. If the edition does not appear by its void date, the forecast scores nothing rather than being argued about. The mix deliberately spans risk levels, because a register built only of near-certainties games its own Brier score and one built only of coin flips learns nothing. The tournament literature's lesson is that calibration is trained by scoring both.
The register
Press freedom declines again.
The global average score declines relative to the 2026 edition.
The index has fallen in most recent years and the 2026 edition set the record low. The stake is directional continuation, with real room to be wrong if the floor holds.
The democratic share does not recover.
The share of world population living in democracies, electoral plus liberal, reads at or below 26 percent, the 2026 figure.
The autocratization wave V-Dem has documented for a decade has strong inertia. Recovery above the line within one edition would be a real surprise the register should pay for missing.
Extreme poverty lands in the nowcast band.
The global extreme-poverty rate at the $3.00 line (2021 PPP) reads between 9.0 and 10.5 percent inclusive.
A deliberate calibration anchor near the published nowcast. Its job in the register is to test whether the workshop can also predict the expected, not only fear the worst.
The boundary count holds at seven.
The report counts exactly 7 of 9 planetary boundaries transgressed, neither an eighth crossing nor a restoration below seven.
Boundary transitions are slow relative to one reporting year. The residual risk is mostly methodological revision, which the register accepts as a legitimate way to lose.
Social time stays on its plateau.
Average daily social-media time, on the pure-social metric the series headlines, reads between 2h10m and 2h30m inclusive.
The series has plateaued near 2h20m for several editions. The framework's own attention diagnosis might predict a rise, which is exactly why a plateau stake is diagnostic. If the diagnosis layer cannot allow a plateau, the register should catch it.
Open countries stay scarce.
If ARTICLE 19 publishes by December 31, 2026, the share of world population living in Open countries reads at or below 16 percent. The 2025 edition read about 15 percent.
Carried as conditional precisely because a register should show how it handles instruments that may not show up.
What the register tests, and what it cannot
These are forecasts of the panel's instruments, not of the framework's adoption or success. What they can falsify is the workshop's framing layer, whether the eyes that chose the eight dials read the world with calibration or with doctrine. A register that misses systematically in the pessimistic direction, predicting decline that does not come, would indict the diagnosis as bias wearing the costume of analysis, and that verdict feeds F–09 directly. A register that only wins by staking near-certainties would indict the workshop's courage rather than its calibration, which is why DP–1 and DP–2 carry real directional risk and DP–3 is labeled as the anchor it is. What the register cannot test is the counterfactual at the framework's heart, that mechanisms like these would hold a polity in band, because no polity runs them. That test belongs to the tracker, the harness, and eventually a pilot.
The baselines underneath
The stakes rest on refreshed instruments. Verifying each one before staking surfaced four stale readings on the panel, the rebased poverty line, the 2026 press-freedom edition, the moved DataReportal release cadence, and the dormant Global Health Security Index. All four are now carried in the live vital signs. Forecasts staked on stale baselines would be theater, so the refresh came first.
Honest limits and the named residual
Six forecasts is a register in embryo. At this count, Brier scores carry wide uncertainty and a lucky doctrine can outscore an honest one, so the register's value at first resolution is procedural rather than statistical. The workshop will have made dated claims it cannot unmake, and the habit compounds. The residual is the one the reality anchor carries in EQ–06e. The registrant chooses the questions, and question choice is itself framing power. A register of self-chosen questions bounds the residual sovereign; it does not dissolve it. The cure is the same as everywhere in the framework, a rival, outside parties proposing forecasts the workshop must accept or publicly decline, which arrives with the external red team or not at all.