Aeviterna
The partial harness

Run the interface.

You cannot test a whole civilization. You can test its interface. Below is a toy of many coupled cells under shocks. Feedback gets captured, stress spreads between neighbours, and the question is whether the Aeviternal mechanisms, decaying standing that unwinds capture and exit that cuts ties to captured neighbours, keep more cells inside their survivable band than a system without them. Flip the mechanisms off, inject a crisis, move the decay rate, and watch.

Mean health90%
Cells in band100%
Mean capture8%
Step0
in band drifting breached
A toy, not a forecast
Chosen, not fittedThe cells, couplings, shock sizes, and rates are chosen for clarity, not fitted to data, so the finding is the shape of the behavior, never the exact numbers.
The findingWith the mechanisms, the coupled system holds and recovers from a crisis. Without them, capture compounds and spreads.
The tunable middleDecay too slow lets capture compound; too fast leaks the standing that powers correction. This is the in-browser form of falsifier F–04.
The offline testsThe tunable middle survives when decay runs on banded half-life tiers, the calibration of EQ–05d; and capacity and momentum jointly gate the transition cascade of EQ–04d, carried as candidate falsifier F–05.

In-silico consistency, not proof.

Harness v3 · the economic siege

Wall the economy.

A siege rarely arrives as an army. It arrives as prices, and as flows that stop. Below is a toy of a small trade network. One polity is put under siege, its five economic channels clamped from outside, capital, clearing, price, talent, and inputs. Two versions run under the identical siege, one carrying the wall EQ–04f builds and one without. The question is whether the walled polity holds its floor while the unwalled one collapses, and whether it does so without breaching its own floor or exporting the loss to its trade partners. Edit the siege, edit the wall, and watch. This is the in-browser form of falsifier F–14.

Running the siege.
walled polity unwalled control weakest partner dignity floor
The siege
Channels clamped:
The wall
Model parameters
Channel weights
The parameters
A toy, not a forecast
The findingWith the wall, the sieged polity holds its floor while the unwalled control collapses. Turn the wall off and it collapses too, so the pieces are load-bearing.
No wall is infinitePush the intensity and duration far enough and the internal substitutes fatigue, the stockpile empties, and even the walled polity breaches. The wall buys time and dignity, not immunity.
The dignity riderDrop the wall's self-sufficiency and it survives only by draining a trade partner below their own floor. F–14 scores that as failure too, because survival that exports the loss does not count.
The five channelsCapital, clearing, price, talent, and inputs are the clamps EQ–04f names, each met by a duty on an organ already running.

In-silico consistency, not proof. Parameters load from assets/harness-siege.json.